By Ramon Pacheco Pardo
4.4.2025
Introduction
South Korea’s Constitutional Court has confirmed that the impeachment of now former president Yoon Suk-yeol, as voted by the National Assembly last December shortly after Yoon’s ill-fated declaration of martial law. The Court reached its verdict in an unanimous 8-0 vote. This way, Yoon has become the second South Korean president to have their dismissal confirmed by the Constitutional Court – following Park Geun-hye in 2017. South Korea now has to hold a new presidential election within 60 days, which will return a new president. The new president would then formally take office shortly afterwards.
What is the political and social situation in South Korea now?
The attention of South Korea’s political parties and public opinion will now squarely focus on the forthcoming presidential election. Lee Jae-myung, the current leader of the liberal Democratic Party (DP), is expected to be his party’s candidate for the forthcoming election. Lee narrowly lost the 2022 presidential election against Yoon. As leader of the DP, he led the party to a clear majority in the 2024 National Assembly election. And last week, the Seoul appellate court cleared Lee of charges that he committed election law violations in 2022. Even though Lee still has four other criminal charges against him making their way through the court system, he is free to run for the presidential election. At this point in time, there seems to be no liberal politician who could challenge Lee’s position as the presumptive DP presidential candidate. Most polls show that Lee is in the lead to become the new president. However, these polls have been carried out when the attention was focused on Yoon’s impeachment and there was no clear conservative presidential candidate. The public’s attention will now focus on Lee and his conservative opponent, which could affect the DP leader’s presidential prospects.
On the conservative side, it is unclear who will be the People Power Party (PPP) candidate for the presidential election. There is also the possibility that the PPP will split into two or more separate parties, given that there are pro-Yoon and anti-Yoon groups within the party. A split, however, would almost ensure that the DP candidate would win the forthcoming presidential election. This is a strong reason for the party to remain united and rally behind their chosen candidate. In fact, most polls carried out in recent weeks have shown that the PPP is currently more popular than the DP. This further reinforces the voices of conservative policymakers advocating unity within the PPP. Once the PPP selects its candidate, it will start to become clearer whether the conservative party can really pose a challenge to Lee’s presidential ambitions or not.
In parallel with the presidential race, supporters of the ousted president Yoon are likely to continue to protest the decision to impeach him as politically motivated and, ultimately, illegal. In recent weeks, tens of thousands of Yoon supporters have been taking to the streets in support of the now former president. They have an incentive to continue with their protests as a way to rally support for Yoon and the conservative presidential candidate – as well as to try to weaken Lee, who many of the former president’s supporters blame for his impeachment. Whether these protests will boost the position of the PPP’s presidential candidate or the position of its DP’s opponent – given that many liberals find their protests unwarranted – remains unclear.
What is Yoon Suk-yeol’s position now?
Beyond his impeachment, Yoon faces a criminal trial for alleged rebellion as a result of his December martial law declaration. While the charges are separate from the reasons behind Yoon’s impeachment, the decision by the Constitutional Court to confirm the ousting of the ex-president will embolden the prosecutors to continue to pursue their case. South Korean presidents have immunity from most crimes, but not rebellion. This crime is punishable with a prison sentence including life imprisonment, as well as the death penalty. However, life imprisonment sentences are rare in South Korea and the country has had a de facto moratorium on the death penalty dating back to the last executions carried out in 1997. Thus, Yoon would be likely to face a lengthy prison sentence if convicted.
Yoon could also be acquitted from the alleged crime of rebellion. If this were the case, it is highly unlikely that Yoon would be able to return to public life due to his impeachment and, previously, martial law declaration. Yet, he could become a sympathetic figure among certain conservative circles. As a case in point, a growing number of conservative policymakers and voters have taken a more positive view of Park Geun-hye and her presidency in recent years. Park, pardoned by former (liberal) president Moon Jae-in and thus released from prison in 2021, commands support in conservative strongholds across South Korea. It is not unthinkable that the same could happen with Yoon, as unlikely as this may seem at the moment.
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The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy (CSDS) or the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB).
