South Korea: Impeachments and Next Steps

By Henry Haggard

20.1.2025

President Yoon impeached

Since President Yoon Suk-Yeol’s hours-long declaration of martial law 3 December 2024, the opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) brought two impeachment motions against Yoon, with the second one successful on 14 December securing twelve votes (204 total) from the ruling Peoples Power Party (PPP), enough to secure the necessary two thirds of votes. All 192 of the DPK legislators voted to impeach Yoon. Following the vote, Yoon was relieved of his duties and then-Prime Minister Han Duk-soo took over as acting president.

Acting President Han impeached

The Constitutional Court is charged with certifying (or not) the National Assembly’s impeachment vote. The opposition believed that only a full court of nine judges could produce a fair outcome. Six Constitutional Court judges must certify a presidential impeachment to validate the ruling and there were just six judges on the Court on 14 December when the National Assembly voted to impeach Yoon. Since then-acting President Han refused to appoint judges to fill the three empty seats on the Constitutional Court – Han said he would only appoint consensus candidates, impossible given the political cleavage –, the opposition DPK party brought forth and approved an impeachment motion against Han by a majority vote on 27 December 2024. A two thirds majority (200 votes) in the National Assembly is necessary to impeach a President in South Korea, but the Assembly can impeach any other official with a simple majority (151 votes). Therefore, the opposition DPK and its coalition partners, with 192 of 300 seats, could impeach Han despite the absence of the 108 ruling party lawmakers at the vote.

Acting President Choi takes over

After Han’s impeachment, then-Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok became acting President and on 31 December appointed two judges to the Constitutional Court. On 3 January 2025, investigators from the Corruption Investigation Office (COI) attempted to execute a warrant for Yoon’s arrest and interrogation related to the various charges levied against him, including a charge for insurrection as a result of his failed self-coup. The Presidential Security Service (PSS) formed a human wall, blocking police and investigators to prevent Yoon’s arrest as Yoon remains holed up in his hilltop villa in central Seoul. After the warrant expired, government authorities extended the warrant on 7 January.

Yoon arrested

On 15 January 2025, the CIO investigators executed the warrant and brought Yoon in for questioning. Before he left his residence, Yoon issued a video stating that the arrest was illegal. He will be questioned by the CIO, the police and then the prosecutors and held at the Seoul Detention Center until the trial at the Constitutional Court concludes.

Constitutional Court hearings begin

Hearings in the Constitutional Court began 14 January and five sessions are scheduled between 14 January and 4 February 2025. The 14 January session lasted just minutes as Yoon did not appear. Yoon’s lawyers attempted unsuccessfully to exclude one of the justices and requested that former Prime Minister Han’s impeachment hearings proceed before the Constitutional Court considers Yoon’s case. Regarding the two previous impeachments, then-President Roh Moo-hyun regained office in March 2004, two months after his impeachment when the Court dismissed the motion. And in March 2017, the Constitutional Court upheld then-President Park Geun-hye’s impeachment and presidential elections were held in May 2017, six months after the 9 December 2016 impeachment vote related to charges that Park abused her power.

Next steps

If the Constitutional Court does not certify Yoon’s impeachment, Yoon would resume office as President of South Korea. Since then-President Yoon publicly declared martial law, most experts presume that the Constitutional Court will uphold the impeachment motion and South Korea will hold presidential elections in the April-June timeframe depending on how the court case proceeds. The Constitutional Court must rule within 180 days of the impeachment vote, and, once the Court rules, an election must take place within 60 days of the ruling.

Consequences

Many Koreans have expressed concern that the domestic political turmoil that is ongoing in the wake of the impeachments and now arrest and detention of deposed President Yoon will damage South Korea’s ability to work effectively with the United States and the incoming Trump administration, and affect Korea’s reputation as a leading democracy. With Trump’s inauguration on 20 January 2025, there is concern that an acting President in South Korea is not well positioned for a strong start with Trump and his team. Some foreign observers have concerns that instability in South Korea could lead to a loss in momentum on several key issues such as trilateral relations with Japan and the US, coordination on supply chain and economic security, and overall coordination vis-a-vis China. The US Secretary of State and the Japanese Foreign Minister visited Seoul in January, seeking to ensure coordination, especially regarding North Korea, remains solid. Most anticipate that Trump and his team will look to South Korea to take a strong position with the US to counter China and an acting President in Korea could face considerable domestic opposition to new initiatives if they could cause increased friction with China.

Conclusion

The end of the stand-off between Yoon and the CIO led to a boost in Korean markets as some semblance of political “normalcy” has returned, the Constitutional Court hearings can proceed, and expectations are that the process will now lead to a presidential election in the Spring. Polling suggests that DPK party leader Lee Jae Myung is the odds-on favourite to win the presidency while a number of conservative candidates are now seeking to unite the anti-Lee, anti-impeachment sentiment and preparing to challenge Lee.

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