European Security at a Crossroads

In late June 2025, at The Hague, NATO pledged, based on a specific request from the United States (US). Back in 2014, at the Wales Summit, NATO allies had agreed to spend 2 percent of their GDP on defence, but at The Hague, they agreed to increase this amount to 5 percent of GDP—a target to be metby 2035—with 3.5 percent to be spent on defence and 1.5 percent on defence- and security-related investments. European allies rolled out the red carpet for US President Donald Trump, and the president (or “Daddy” as the NATO chief would call him), left The Hague with a political victory. Despite concerns that many NATO allies would struggle to meet the new targets, European allies believed that giving in to Trump’s demands was a small price to pay for maintaining Allied unity and ensuring America’s security guarantee to Europe—failing to agree to the new 5 percenttarget risked Trump calling for the US’s departure from NATO, as had been the case during his first term in office.