The Future of Deterrence in Europe and East Asia

Over the last few years, an intense debate has unfolded around the opportunity costs associated with supporting Ukraine to resist Russia’s aggression, and the consequent effects on prioritising deterrence efforts against China in the Indo- Pacific region. Some analysts have highlighted the existence of strategic trade-offs, arguing that the more resources the United States (US) or its Indo-Pacific allies spend on Ukraine the fewer resources they will have at their disposal to deter China in the Indo-Pacific. Others, in contrast, have emphasised the existence of strategic payoffs, arguing that by standing up for global norms whenever and wherever they might be challenged, the international community would send a powerful signal that will make Beijing think twice before deciding to violate the sovereignty of another state (e.g. Taiwan).

Against this backdrop, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) and the Centre for Security Diplomacy and Strategy (CSDS) are convening an expert workshop to address the following question: How should the US and its allies approach deterrence and alliance management in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific?

The purpose of the workshop is to assess the advantages and disadvantages of three distinct ideal-type approaches to deterrence and alliance management in Europe and the Indo-Pacific: namely bifurcation, cooperation and integration, by paying attention to key factors such as force structure, posture, command and control and alliance structures.

Concept Note and Programme