The second Trump administration has urged Europeans to take primary responsibility for Europe’s conventional defence. During his first visit to Europe in February 2025, the United States’ (US) Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth affirmed that as the US prioritises ‘deterring war with China in the Indo-Pacific’, European allies would need to ‘lead from the front’ in Europe. But what does European leadership entail? Adding further ambiguity and uncertainty to this debate, an April 2025 Pentagon memo stipulated that the United States would continue to support Europe with nuclear deterrence but ‘is unlikely to provide any substantial, if any, support in the case of Russian military advances’.
Is Europe ready to lead from the front in this way? What kind of adjustments would be needed in key areas like Command and Control or conventional warfare? What would it mean for US extended nuclear deterrence and US force posture and defence strategy in Europe more broadly? Critically, how would such a fundamental rebalancing in transatlantic relations impinge on deterrence, especially in a context of Russian revisionism?
To address these questions, the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy (CSDS) has launched an initiative on the “Future of European Deterrence”. This initiative will lead to the organisation of a series of public events, expert and track 1.5 workshops and the publication of various policy briefs, podcasts and longer studies.
FED – Concept Note 2025
Project Deliverables
“Rebalancing NATO’s Command: European Operational Responsibility and Transatlantic Defence“, CSDS In-Depth Paper (by Diego Ruiz Palmer and Luis Simón).
“How Russia Sees War: An Examination“, CSDS Policy Brief (by Beatrice Heuser).
“Down but Not Out? Russia’s Future Military Capacity in the Shadow of its War on Ukraine“, CSDS Policy Brief (by Diego Ruiz Palmer).
“Australia and the NATO Summit: Australia’s Defence and Deterrence Strategy, The Hague Summit and the Indo-Pacific“, Strategy Speaks (by Luis Simón and Lotje Boswinkel)
“What if Hell Breaks Loose? Imagining a post-American Europe“, CSDS Policy Brief (by Luis Simón and Lotje Boswinkel).
“What Strategic Outlook for Transatlantic Security?“, RUSI Commentary (by Alexander Mattelaer).
“Imagining a Post-American Europe: The Future of Europe’s Deterrence Architecture”, CSDS event (with Lotje Boswinkel, Gideon Rose, Luis Simón and Tomasz Szatkowski).
“European Options for Ukraine: A Conversation with Sir Lawrence Freedman“, CSDS Conversations.
“Indispensable Lynchpin or Irrelevant Symbolism? Polish-US Defence Relations and the Second Trump Presidency”, CSDS Policy Brief (by Tomasz Szatkowski).
“Escalation Management: Europe’s Conventional and Nuclear Deterrence”, Strategy Speaks podcast, (with Lotje Boswinkel, Elie Perot and Daniel Fiott).
“Revisiting Deterrence: Towards a French Nuclear Umbrella Over Europe?“, CSDS Policy Brief (by Elie Perot).
“Europe, Deterrence and Long-Range Strike”, War on the Rocks, (by Lotje Boswinkel).
