How Europe is Preparing for Trump II

By Daniel Fiott

25.3.2024

SWP Berlin

The US Presidential elections has cast a shadow over Europe. Although still more than half a year away and with an uncertain outcome, the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is widely viewed by politicians, officials, experts and the public across Europe as a challenge for international and especially European politics. Many fear that Trump’s transactional, isolationist and disruptive style of governance would not only challenge but destroy the current transatlantic relationship. However, there are also voices that emphasise common ground with Trump on certain foreign and security policy issues, as well as on cultural and “identity” issues. Some, like the Baltic or Central European countries, see themselves in a more comfortable position, prepared to focus on bilateral cooperation, while others, like Germany, are bracing for open verbal attacks from the former and potentially future U.S. president. The consensus among policymakers and experts in these countries is that Trump’s attacks will not remain mere rhetoric, but are more likely to be quickly followed by (disruptive) decisions on foreign, security, economic and climate policy, given that Trump and his team are better prepared than back in 2017-21, both in terms of policy and personnel.

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