How Much Should Britain be Investing in Defence?

By Lotje Boswinkel

15.3.2024

Big Ask

Donald Trump’s recent criticisms against NATO allies ‘who fail to pay their bills’ has once again reinvigorated debates on European defence spending. The UK is one of the few NATO members which have consistently met the alliance’s 2% target since 2014, alongside the United States (US), Greece and Estonia. One may therefore conclude that London has little to worry about.

The opposite is true. If the US were to defend only those allies which spend 2%, the alliance as a whole would still be vulnerable. Trump may also just pull back from NATO no matter how much Europeans spend. Moreover, tensions in Asia will continue to draw US resources away from Europe regardless of the election outcome. As the war against Ukraine rages on, and with a direct NATO-Russia conflict no longer unthinkable, Europeans should prepare to defend themselves with limited or no US support.

This is no easy task. Europeans lack sufficient strategic enablers, long-range fires, missile defence systems, and heavy armoured brigades. Closing Europe’s capability gap requires more cooperation, more integration, and more money. Britain is arguably one of the few allies which can contribute those flagship capabilities and strategic leadership functions to fill potential US gaps. But that would require a significant increase in spending. Although this might be challenging politically, desperate times call for desperate measures.

Read now