Not One Without the Other: Realigning Deterrence and Arms Control in a European Quest for Strategic Stability

Lotje Boswinkel

06.12.2022

Neither arms control nor deterrence can be considered without the other. In a new HCSS policy brief, Lotje Boswinkel and Paul van Hooft underline that, however counterintuitive it may seem to Europeans, investments in robust deterrence also provide powerful bargaining leverage to engage on arms control.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused a strategic awakening in Europe, but long before the war, relations between Washington and Moscow had already deteriorated and competition with Beijing had grown. Today’s global missile landscape is more dense, diverse, advanced, and volatile – as well as more contested and less regulated.

Meanwhile, the future of the arms control regime is hanging by a thread. Key bilateral arms control treaties have either collapsed or become increasingly outdated, or are suffering from a lack of enforcement mechanisms, contestation and non-compliance from outside and from within.

https://hcss.nl/report/not-one-without-the-other-deterrence-and-arms-control/