Nuclear Signalling in Russia’s War Against Ukraine

CSDS POLICY BRIEF • 5/2023

By Liviu Horovitz and Anna Clara Arndt

23.02.2023

Nuclear weapons shaped the decision space for both Russia and the West. They barely played a role towards preventing Moscow’s invasion, but constricted both NATO and the Kremlin’s ability to leverage conventional force. There is, however, enough data to determine that Russia employed a three-fold nuclear signalling approach of deterring foreign military intervention, dissuading or at least delaying foreign aid to Ukraine and intimidating the government in Kyiv. Building upon this empirical foundation, this Policy Brief assesses what we know about the role of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict, but it also examines the current limits of knowledge.

CSDS Policy brief_2305.pdf (375.61 KB)

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