By Ramon Pacheco Pardo
4.12.2024
On 3 December 2024, at 22:30, President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law. This was the first such declaration since 1980 – as well as the first since South Korea’s transition to democracy in 1987-1988. Two hours later, 190 out of 190 lawmakers present in the National Assembly voted to overturn the martial law declaration. On 4 December, at 04:30, Yoon formally rescinded the declaration. Later in the day, the opposition liberal parties that hold the majority in the National Assembly submitted a motion to impeach Yoon. The impeachment vote is scheduled for later this week. The opposition parties only need eight votes from conservative lawmakers to achieve the two thirds majority that would allow the motion to be passed. Were the motion to pass, South Korea’s Constitutional Court would hold a trial to confirm whether the impeachment is legal. At least six out of nine justices would need to vote in favour of the legality of the impeachment for it to be confirmed. Were this to happen, new presidential elections would take place and a new president would be elected. Were the impeachment motion vote to fail in the National Assembly or the Constitutional Court turn it down, Yoon would remain as president unless he opted to resign.
Why did Yoon declare martial law?
It has become clear that a very small number of government officials knew that the declaration was coming. All of them are very close to the president, such as Defence Minister Kim Yong-hyun. According to Yoon’s declaration, the liberal opposition was seeking to ‘overthrow the free democracy’ through its actions in the National Assembly, while also indicating that pro-North Korean forces were conspiring against his government. Thus, it seems that the main reason why Yoon issued the martial law declaration was to break the domestic political impasse via military rule. With the liberal opposition holding a majority in the National Assembly and his own approval rating hovering around 20% for months, it would have been difficult for Yoon to pass any major legislation during his (still) remaining two years and a half in office.
It could also be that Yoon and his close knit of supporters may have believed that Yoon’s own People Power Party, with whom the president has had a rocky relationship for months, would rally behind the president. They may have also believed that the conservative political base that rallied behind Yoon in the 2022 election – propelling him to victory – would once again come to his support. Plus, Yoon may have also calculated that the ongoing presidential transition in the United States would have left a power vacuum whereby South Korea’s most important ally would have not spoken out against the martial law declaration. None of these scenarios have panned out, but they are not unthinkable as part of the thought process that would have led Yoon to issue his declaration.
What are the main immediate consequences of the failed martial law declaration?
The main immediate consequence of the failed declaration is that Yoon’s political future looks uncertain at best. The president not only has to grapple with the impeachment motion, but most of his cabinet’s top officials have handed in their resignations, a growing number of conservative lawmakers are turning against him and protests calling for his resignation have already started. Arguably, the only way that Yoon could survive politically would be to convince the People Power Party to unite against the impeachment motion, out of fear that a liberal president would win the election that would follow a successful impeachment. Yet, street protests are very likely to swell the longer that Yoon remains in office, as was the case during the candlelight protests that led to the impeachment of former president Park Geun-hye in 2016-2017.
Another immediate consequence of the failed declaration is that South Korea – and South Koreans – has once more shown the resilience of its democracy. Most South Koreans speaking publicly and in private have indicated their shock at the events of the night of 3-4 December, regardless of their age and political persuasion. They cannot fathom that martial law could be declared in their country in 2024. A few of them have also expressed their embarrassment at this situation. At the same time, however, there is a clear sense of pride in the fact that South Korean democracy functioned. The National Assembly vote against the declaration led Yoon to rescind it. Protests took place even during the brief period in which the declaration was in place, while the media continued to operate freely. There were some scuffles between a small number of soldiers and lawmakers inside and just outside the National Assembly, but the situation was resolved peacefully. In other words, many inside and outside South Korea see a silver lining in this situation in that the country’s democracy remains solid.
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The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy (CSDS) or the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB).
