By Ramon Pacheco Pardo
28.03.2024
Relations between South Korea and Russia have deteriorated rapidly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. As of March 2024, it is fair to say that South Korea-Russia relations are at their lowest point since Seoul and Moscow normalised bilateral diplomatic relations in September 1990. The two of them sit on the opposite sides of the Russia-Ukraine war, with South Korea being one of the few countries outside of NATO providing staunch support to Kyiv. Trade between South Korea and Russia and investment by South Korean firms into Russia have essentially ground to a halt, as Seoul implements a comprehensive set of sanctions on Moscow along with the United States, Europe, Japan and a handful of other countries. Compared to Europe, Russia accounted for a small share of South Korea’s fossil fuel imports before February 2022, with a share of 6 percent for oil and 5 percent for natural gas. This share has now become almost negligible for oil and declined by almost half for natural gas. The arrest of a South Korean national in Russia on espionage charges has further eroded South Korea-Russia ties, with South Korean experts accusing Russia of engaging in ‘hostage diplomacy’. Meanwhile, the recent cancellation of a planned show in Seoul by ballerina Svetlana Zakharova, accused of being supportive of Russian president Vladimir Putin, shows that even cultural ties are suffering as a result of poor bilateral relations. It should also be noted that Russia’s long-standing support for North Korea or cyberattacks on South Korea also means that there is a degree of distrust towards Russia among Seoul’s policy-makers, irrespective of its invasion of Ukraine. Even though the South Korean government expressed its deepest condolences following the recent terrorist attack in the Crocus City Hall, the negative dynamics in the relationship between Seoul and Moscow are unlikely to change any time soon.
How does South Korea perceive Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?
South Korea has been very alarmed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine since the Putin government took the decision to march into its neighbour. From a South Korean perspective, Russia’s actions are a clear violation of international law that, furthermore, could serve as an example to North Korea and China if Ukraine does not receive adequate support. This is a key reason why Seoul swiftly joined the United States and Europe in imposing sanctions on Russia following the February 2022 invasion. This also explains why South Korea is providing non-lethal military support and aid directly to Ukraine, as well as artillery shells and weapons via third countries. South Korean policy-makers fear that China could decide to follow on Russia’s steps and invade Taiwan, or that North Korea could feel emboldened to launch a strike on their country.
More recently, the Yoon Suk-yeol government has become alarmed by North Korea’s military support to Russia, most notably suspected missile and artillery shell transfers. From a South Korean perspective, stronger ties between Moscow and Pyongyang mean more instability in the Korean Peninsula as Russia reciprocates by sending its technology, sharing expertise and providing more energy and food aid to the Kim Jong-un regime. It is fair to say that few in South Korea believe that Russia and North Korea will establish a formal treaty relationship similar to the one that Moscow and Pyongyang maintained during the Cold War. Never mind the possibility of China, North Korea and Russia establishing a tripartite pact, which almost all informed South Korean policy-makers and experts consider fanciful given their different international positions and interests. But it is undeniable that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the uneven response by the international community benefits Pyongyang.
What is South Korea doing to try to stabilise the relationship with Russia?
The Yoon government considers that South Korea’s relations with Russia cannot go back to ‘normal’ until its war with Ukraine comes to an end. What is more, a growing number of South Korean policy-makers believe that it will be difficult to improve their country’s relations with Russia until Putin leaves office, even if Russian troops were to withdraw from Ukraine. Russia’s ambassador to South Korea Georgy Zinoviev recently warned Seoul that bilateral relations would suffer if Seoul increased its support for Ukraine. This negative assessment of the bilateral relationship is shared by most South Korean government officials. Having said that, the Yoon government believes that it is necessary to stabilise relations with Russia to avoid further deterioration. In this respect, the South Korean government believes that cultural ties should not be fully halted, in spite of the recent incident with a Russian ballerina. Furthermore, South Korean law prevents its government and private firms from transferring weapons to countries at war, a key reason why Seoul is not providing offensive military capabilities to Ukraine. This legal constraint has helped to prevent South Korea-Russia relations from worsening even further.
South Korea is also thinking about its future relationship with Russia, once the invasion of Ukraine is over. South Korean policy-makers believe that it will be necessary to maintain cordial relations with Russia in the future, given that it is one of two countries bordering the Korean Peninsula, it could play a role in dealing with North Korea’s nuclear and missile programme, however small, and at some point economic relations should normalise. Yet, at the same time many South Korean government officials and experts assess that Russia will remain an unreliable actor at least while Putin is in office, and that Russia-South Korea tensions on account of Moscow’s support for Pyongyang and cyber activities will not go away.
