Two-Theatre Tragedy: A Reluctant Europe Cannot Easily Escape a Sino-American War Over Taiwan

By Tim Sweijs and Paul van Hooft

10.4.2024

War on the Rocks

It is a trope in superhero stories that the hero must try and be in two places at once. Europe is trying to do the same by splitting its military capabilities between the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific. But neither European states individually nor Europe collectively are or have been superpowers for a very long time. Rather than dilute the fragile sense of purpose and growing power they have built in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European powers should prioritize their home region. Backfilling maritime security in the Euro-Atlantic up to the western Indian Ocean is a more valuable distribution of tasks with the United States than sending limiting capabilities that are unfit for the deterrence of China.

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This article was developed as part of the Bridging Allies initiative, led by the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy (CSDS). The Bridging Allies initiative is supported by the Australian Government through a grant by the Australian Department of Defence. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Australian Government or the Australian Department of Defence.