Ukraine, Europe and the Art of the Deal

President-elect Donald Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine even before being sworn in. He has explicitly refrained from providing any details as to how exactly he may do that, arguing it would be foolish to show his cards before any such negotiation. Any possible deal entailing a peace-for-territories trade would represent a significant reversal from President Joe Biden’s promise to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes.” It would also fly in the face of Europe’s preference to continue to help Ukraine defend itself from Russia’s war of aggression. It is therefore important to explore Europe’s response options to a possible Trump-led peace deal for Ukraine. We argue that Europe (i.e., E.U. countries plus the United Kingdom) is unlikely to either prevent a deal from happening or fill the void left by a hypothetical U.S. decision to pull the plug on Ukraine aid. Instead, it should focus its energies on ensuring that any future deal is sustainable and guarantees Ukraine’s survival as an independent country, ideally by bringing Kyiv into NATO and the European Union. To shape the ground for such a deal, Europe should use the right mix of economic, financial, and military incentives. In other words, European countries may be unable to stop Trump’s Ukraine peace deal from landing but, if they play their cards right, they can have a say over the actual landing zone.