Alliances in Contested Waters: US Extended Deterrence in China’s Maritime Territorial Disputes

Do alliances promote peace or conflict? This project examines how the alliance commitments provided by the United States (or the lack thereof) have affected maritime disputes in the East and South China Seas and the Yellow Sea from 1970 to the present. More precisely, building on the theory of composite security dilemma, it investigates how the interpretations of US security commitments have influenced Chinese, Japanese, Philippine, South Korean and Vietnamese behaviors in the maritime disputes. Using the method of structured, focused comparison, the project utilises among other sources, public and declassified government documents, survey data and elite interviews. It contributes to the literatures on (1) military alliances and extended deterrence and on (2) international maritime disputes. The project breaks new ground by adapting alliance theory to the maritime environment, which has become the central stage for Asian geopolitics, and by taking the previously overlooked impact of alliances on maritime disputes into account. The project is designed to produce insights beyond the case studies and will advance fundamental research on the role of alliances in international disputes.

Project deliverables

Tongfi Kim, “The EU Must Step Up in the South China Sea to Deter China’s Gray-Zone Tactics“, The Brussels Times (5 April 2024).

Caroline Liss and Tongfi Kim, “Pirates, Illegal Fishing, and Other Illicit Activities in the South China Sea“, Routledge Book Chapter (January 2024).