Shades of Grim: Scenarios for Ukraine and Global Order

By Lotje Boswinkel and Luis Simón

12/2024

This CSDS In-Depth Paper outlines four possible scenarios for how the war in Ukraine may evolve, and discusses each scenarios’ implications for global security. Other works have drawn on foresight to ponder various aspects related to the war, such as battlefield outcomes, the possible political evolution of Russia and Ukraine or European Union-Ukraine relations. What gives this In-Depth Paper product differentiation is the focus on how the Ukraine war – and Europe’s security architecture – intersects with broader dynamics of global power competition, and more specifically how the United States prioritises its resources across various regions, the balance of power between the United States and China or Sino-Russian relations. While all of the scenarios that we present pose significant challenges for European and global security, there are many shades of grim – Ukraine’s collapse being the nightmare scenario. We argue that the West should aim for Ukraine’s victory or at least deny Ukraine to Russia, and that Europeans should take the lead in upholding Ukraine’s defence so as to enable a stronger American focus on the Indo-Pacific, which is where the main challenge to global security lies.

In-Depth Paper 12:2024