5 November 2024. The presidential elections are underway in the United States, and Europe waits with bated breath at the outcome. How will Europe have to adapt? The return of President Trump may raise the spectre of more adversarial transatlantic politics, but President Harris could lead to continued European stasis on defence. Either way, the geopolitical undercurrents of the world are such that Europeans do need to continue to focus on their security and defence – regardless of the outcome in the US. Questions about European unity and leadership will no doubt re-emerge in the days and weeks ahead, but the continent is faced with a political vacuum where the leaders of the main European nations appear incapable of spearheading any European response to potentially being left alone. The war in Ukraine will be the biggest test, with many assuming Europe cannot (and will not) make up any shortfall of US support to Kyiv. The Middle East is still burning, with no end in sight. The Indo-Pacific is now the centre of world affairs, but it is linked to Euro-Atlantic security, especially so with the rise of China and the actions of powers such as North Korea and Iran.
As CSDS, we continue to analyse the political shifts in Washington as a basis for understanding how European security may evolve in the future. We are keenly aware that the NATO alliance faces a challenge of unity, not least due to divergent views among allies on how best to handle the China challenge. Our analysis has underlined the growing importance for Europeans to take up more responsibility within NATO, and we have published views on how best to think of EU-NATO cooperation. As questions about the US’ reliability as an ally in Europe remain, the biggest challenge for Europeans will be how they can directly support Ukraine. This is particularly the case if any incoming US administration decides to lower American support for Kyiv. We have analysed whether Europe’s bilateral defence agreements with Ukraine can help, and whether the European defence technological and industrial base can meet the challenge of long-term military support to Ukraine. Based on a study of future scenarios, CSDS has underlined that any resolution to the war in Ukraine will have far-reaching global implications.
In the Indo-Pacific, CSDS have advocated for an ambitious European approach to the region and we have advised the new EU leadership to engage more deeply with partners such as Australia, Japan, South Korea and more. The China challenge will continue to animate security dynamics across the transatlantic space, not least due to differences on economic policy. This means that Europe’s partnerships with like-minded Indo-Pacific nations should intensify after the US presidential elections, regardless of who wins. Europe and its Indo-Pacific partners may be called upon to sustain the rules-based international order, especially in case old and new alliances deteriorate. NATO has stepped up its relations with countries such as Japan and South Korea, but the EU has a critical role to play in bringing like-minded Indo-Pacific partners closer together – even in potentially unique formats.
Whoever wins the US presidential elections, CSDS will continue to provide analysis and share its insights. We are committed to providing our followers and readers informed policy analysis, especially in these turbulent times for the world.
